The Calvin Hicks Show

Election of Barak Obama as the President of the United States of America will have serious implications for Georgia- the country in the Caucasus Region. There are several reasons for this which portrays well the nature of George W Bush’s policy towards the post-Soviet region. Georgia, along with Sebria, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, represents the country where during Bush’s presidency the color revolution took place. These revolutions were considered by Bush as the milestone for promoting democracy in the post-Soviet region and consequently the political elite which came to power enjoyed his unconditional support. This support was displayed during Bush visit in Georgia in 2005 when he called Georgia “the Beacon of Democracy”. Such approach contributed to increasing irritation of Russia which felt that the States were meddling in Russia’s sphere of influence. The tension between Russia and the States became tenser with Bush’s efforts to grant NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine. The escalation culminated in August 2008 with the war between Georgia and Russia which resulted defeat of Georgia’s armed forces and official recognition of Georgia’s two breakaway republics- Abkhazia and South Ossetia- as independent countries. Russia’s moves met Bush’s strong response who ordered American armed forces to conduct military humanitarian mission to assist Georgia. In brief, the post-Soviet countries with interest (and guts) to challenge Russia could hope on Bush’s administrations support.

Bush’s unconditional support to the governing elite in Georgia (President Mikheil Saakashvili) might have served a bad example as they felt that they could get away with almost anything as long as they had such powerful backer. Georgia suffered with super powerful Georgian presidency, weak Parliament and judiciary. The political opposition was left without a say in decision making process and gradually turned into radical political force which would suffice with nothing more than Saakashvili’s resignation. Many ordinary citizens felt that the government employed unnecessary aggressive tactics for implementing the reforms undertaken in various directions. Combination of these factors resulted in large scale demonstration in November 2007 which was brutally crushed by the law enforcement bodies. Many in Georgia felt that Bush’s administration used double standards with regard to Georgia’s leadership in fact encouraging their feeling of impunity.

Now with the new President in the White House the general expectation is that Obama’s administration will adopt somewhat different approach to Georgia and the post-Soviet region in general. Some signs of this can already be observed- installation of anti-missile systems ( irritating factor to Russia) in Poland and Czech Republic are given the second thought, the process of Georgia’s and Ukraine’s integration into NATO is put on brakes, the negotiations regarding reducing the stock of nuclear weapons in Russia and America are launched. The tendency is to increase Russia’s engagement with the West so it can feel that it is once again the important player in the international arena. In terms of Georgia, Saakashvili now cannot hope for such support from Obama as he enjoyed from Bush and this might create an opportunity for intensifying the process of democratization in the country. The representatives of the US State Department already started to call for the dialogue between the government and the opposition. This is particularly significant statement in light of planned large scale opposition demonstration on April 9.

This change of approach of Obama’s foreign policy represents a dramatic curve from his predecessor- now it seems that Obama is interested in supporting democratic institutions rather than supporting individual politicians. Will this mean that Obama’s administration will push Saakashvili to conduct effective democratic reforms? We will have to wait to see. Obama is looking for ways to engage Russia in the dialogue. Does it mean that Georgia’s and Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO are postponed for a long time? Still there is not an answer to this question. One fact is evident- after election of Obama Georgia and the post-Soviet region is entering very interesting period of political developments.